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For markets, BoE communication is bottom of the class
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank expectations have meanwhile risen only marginally. For investors, clear communication from central bankers is crucial as they transmit their policy to borrowing costs through markets. The BoE was the first major central bank to start hiking rates. In contrast, they have long bet on more hikes than the BoE's main forecasts have implied are needed to tame inflation, rates futures show. BoE messaging, suggesting a reluctance to hike, has made it "very difficult" to own gilts recently, he said.
Persons: BoE, Toby Melville, Shamik Dhar, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Schroders, Azad Zangana, Zangana, Liz Truss, Myles Bradshaw, Chris Jeffery, Jerome, Powell, Christine, Lagarde, it's, Craig, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, William Schomberg, John Stonestreet Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, of England, Traders, . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Bank of England's, Investors, Graphics, of England's, Reuters, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, U.S, Dhar
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere will be enough lithium to meet demand over the next couple of years, says Commonwealth BankVivek Dhar from Commonwealth Bank of Australia says lithium demand is sufficient for now, but will surge significantly later in the decade as countries set ambitious climate goals.
Persons: Vivek Dhar Organizations: Commonwealth Bank of Australia
LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Hawkish central banks have sent a resounding "no" to markets betting recession would force rate cuts soon, leaving money managers scrambling for direction as the second half of the year approaches. "Markets have been wrong not only in their interpretation of the data but of the central bank reaction," he added. "Even though inflation is coming down, you are still getting that phase were the central banks think they need to talk hawkishly about this." Canada last week restarted rate hikes, Australia has come off a pause and Norway may have to accelerate hikes next week. BofA now expects two 25 bps interest rate hikes from the Fed this year, JPMorgan sees only one more and Morgan Stanley sees none.
Persons: Jason Simpson, Shorter, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Mark Nash, Nash, Kaspar Hense, Michael Michaelides, Shamik, BoE, they're, Dhar, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Conor Humphries Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, State, Bank of Japan, Treasury, JPMorgan, BlueBay Asset Management, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, Australia, Norway, Shamik Dhar
Shares steady on June hike hiatus hopes
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Lawrence White | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) had earlier surged 2.1% to stand above 32,000 for the first time since July 1990. "With Saudi Arabia protecting oil prices from sliding too low ... we think oil markets are now more prone to a shortfall later this year," said Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The greenback also rose 0.1% on the Japanese yen to 140.26 while the euro eased 0.1% to $0.1069. Markets see a sizeable chance - about 40% - that the RBA could surprise with a quarter-point hike on Tuesday, after a minimum wage hike that economists feared could further stoke inflationary pressures. Additional reporting by Stella Qiu, Editing by Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill, Ed Osmond and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Issei Kato, Brent, Vivek Dhar, Fitch, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill, Ed Osmond, Chizu Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, LONDON, Federal Reserve, Saudi, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, AAA, U.S, Bank of Canada, Reuters, BOC, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S, United States, Australia, Canada
Asian shares extend global rally
  + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Brent oil rose 1% to $76.89 a barrel, giving up some of its earlier gains to as high as $78.73, while U.S. crude climbed 1.2% to $72.61 a barrel, after hitting a session high of $75.06. Oil prices have recently come under pressure amid heightened concerns about China's slowing economic recovery. "With Saudi Arabia protecting oil prices from sliding too low ... we think oil markets are now more prone to a shortfall later this year," said Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% in Asian hours, after a strong rally on Friday, driven by a mixed U.S. jobs report, a resolution to the debt-ceiling issue and the prospect of a U.S. rate pause this month. The U.S. dollar remained elevated on Monday at 104.14 against its major peers, after gaining 0.5% on Friday on the jobs report.
Persons: Brent, Vivek Dhar, Hong, Fitch, Himani Sarkar, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Saudi, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, bbl, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Treasury, AAA, U.S, Bank of Canada, Reuters, BOC, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, U.S, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, United States, Australia, Canada
"Saudi Arabia has a track record of delivering on material cuts," RBC Capital's Helima Croft said in a note. "Hence, we would expect the full 1 million bpd unilateral cut to hit the market in July, nearly doubling the true physical reduction we have seen from the producer group since October." "With Saudi Arabia protecting oil prices from sliding too low by cutting production, we think oil markets are now more prone to a shortfall later this year," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. "We think Brent futures will rise to $85/bbl by Q4 2023 even with a tepid demand recovery in China factored in." "Affording it the 200,000 bpd quota adjustment for 2024 seems to settle the issue of its OPEC membership for now."
Persons: Brent, Helima Croft, Vivek Dhar, Goldman Sachs, Daan Struyven, Callum Bruce, Daniel Hynes, Soni Kumari, RBC's Croft, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: Saudi, Organization of, Petroleum, RBC, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, bbl, ANZ, U.S . Federal, United Arab, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, OPEC, United Arab Emirates
[1/4] A drone view shows derailed coaches after trains collided in Balasore district in the eastern state of Odisha, India, June 3, 2023. REUTERS/StringerBAHANAGA, India, June 4 (Reuters) - Rescuers and families searched through mangled train carriages on Sunday for more victims of India's worst rail crash in more than two decades with signal failure emerging as the likely cause. At least 288 people were killed on Friday when a passenger train went off the tracks and hit another one near the district of Balasore in the eastern state of Odisha. The South Eastern Railway has said a preliminary report indicated that the accident was the result of signal failure. "The target is by Wednesday morning the entire restoration work is complete and tracks should be working," said Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw.
Persons: Stringer BAHANAGA, Narendra Modi, Baisakhi Dhar, Nikhil Dhar, Ashwini Vaishnaw, Kanchan Choudhury, Vaishnaw, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Rishi Sunak, Emmanuel Macron, Jathindra Dash, Jayshree Upadhyay, Ira Dugal, Robert Birsel, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Railways, Eastern Railway, Workers, Railway Ministry, Twitter, Wednesday, Reuters, . U.S, Canadian, British, Thomson Locations: Balasore district, Odisha, India, Balasore, West Bengal, .
SummarySummary Companies China May PMI contracts more than expectedUS debt ceiling bill comes up for vote on WednesdaySaudi Arabia may cut July crude price - Reuters pollMay 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices extended losses early on Wednesday as worries of slowing demand from top oil importer China after the release of weaker-than-expected economic data outweighed some positive progress on the U.S. debt ceiling bill. If passed, the Biden administration would not likely need to negotiate the debt ceiling again before the November 2024 presidential election, Dhar said. Traders were uncertain about whether the group would increase output cuts as a slump in prices weighs on the market. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman last week warned short sellers betting oil prices would fall to "watch out" in a possible signal that OPEC+ may cut output. However, comments from Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate the world's third-largest oil producer is leaning toward leaving output unchanged.
Persons: Brent's, Vivek Dhar, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Biden, Dhar, Abdulaziz bin Salman, Alexander Novak, Stephanie Kelly, Trixie Yap, Himani Sarkar, Jamie Freed Organizations: PMI, Wednesday, Reuters, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Organization of, Petroleum, Traders, Saudi Arabian Energy, Saudi Aramco, OPEC, Thomson Locations: Wednesday Saudi Arabia, China, U.S, Russia, OPEC, Asia, Saudi Arabia
David Solomon has been Goldman Sachs' CEO for over four years since succeeding Lloyd Blankfein. There's been a lot of talk about the morale at Goldman Sachs. Solomon said there were fewer "partner transitions at Goldman Sachs" in 2022 than any year "going back to 2014." Meanwhile, Solomon's expensive foray into consumer banking raised the ire of some longtime Goldman partners, as Insider has previously reported. The fresh faces among the Goldman Sachs executives who took the stage at the bank's investor day highlight the leadership changes under Solomon.
Elon Musk appointed Linda Yaccarino, a former NBCUniversal exec, to succeed him as CEO of Twitter. Amid Twitter's turmoil, some suggest that Yaccarino could fall prey to the so-called "glass cliff." While men often glide on a "glass escalator" to the corner office, women often confront a "glass ceiling." "I wish we were seen as good leaders in good times, too." I wish we were seen as good leaders in good times, too."
REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, a senior official at Fidelity Investments told a European equities conference on Wednesday. The "biggest threat" to the economy is a "true and visible credit crunch", Romain Boscher, chairman of the board at Fidelity Investments, which has about $4.5 trillion of assets under management, told the conference. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.
REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, two senior asset managers told a European equities conference on Wednesday. For asset managers, hedge funds and traders gathered in Paris for the Tradetech equity trading conference, recession risks were a key talking point. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.
Oil prices jump in blow to global inflation hopes
  + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Brent oil futures jumped $4.30 to $84.19 a barrel on news output would be cut by around 1.16 million barrels per day, while U.S. crude climbed $4.17 to $79.84. The change comes before a virtual meeting of an OPEC+ ministerial panel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia. "That means that oil markets may potentially see around 1% of global oil supply or more being curtailed from May." The latest reductions could lift oil prices by $10 per barrel, the head of investment firm Pickering Energy Partners said on Sunday. The rise in oil prices is bad news for Japan's trade balance given it imports most of its energy.
The slide in oil comes despite a historic deal which will see UBS, Switzerland's largest bank, buying the country's No. "The market focus is on current banking sector volatility and the potential for further rate hikes by the Fed," said Baden Moore, National Australia Bank's head of commodity research. A slowdown in interest rate hikes could depress the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil more affordable for holders of other currencies. "The U.S. Fed will be most important institution to watch this week," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar in a note. Separately, Goldman Sachs cut its forecasts for Brent crude after prices plunged on banking and recession fears.
Brent crude futures shed $2.35, or 2.7%, to $83.83 a barrel by 1:05 p.m. EST (1805 GMT) . U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by $2.48 a barrel, or 3%, at $77.98. Prices sank after Powell told Congress the Fed would likely need to increase rates more than expected in light of recent strong economic data. More pressure came from a contraction in China's exports and imports in January and February, including crude oil imports, despite a lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly report is due at 2130 GMT on Tuesday, with U.S. Energy Information Administration data following at 1530 GMT on Wednesday.
Brent crude futures shed $1.46, or 1.7%, to $84.72 a barrel by 11:06 a.m. EST (1606 GMT). Prices declined after Powell told Congress the Fed would likely need to increase rates more than expected in light of recent strong economic data. The remarks pushed up the U.S. dollar , which rose 0.70% on the day at 104.97. A stronger dollar typically reduces demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers paying with other currencies. Further pressure came from a contraction in China's exports and imports in January and February, including crude oil imports, despite a lifting of COVID-19 restrictions.
Prices declined as the U.S. dollar rose ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jeremy Powell's testimony to Congress at 1500 GMT on Tuesday. A stronger dollar typically reduces demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers paying with other currencies. Further pressure came from a contraction in China's exports and imports in January and February, including crude oil imports. U.S. crude inventories could register their first decrease in 10 weeks, a Reuters poll showed before official data is published this week. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly report is due at 2130 GMT on Tuesday, with Energy Information Administration data following at 1530 GMT on Wednesday.
Brent crude futures rose 18 cents to $86.36 per barrel by 0730 GMT after settling 0.4% higher on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $80.62 per barrel, up 16 cents, following a 1% gain in the previous session. "The supply concerns that helped oil prices higher overnight likely stemmed from Chevron's CEO comment that there's 'not a lot of swing capacity' in oil markets," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. "The key unknown for 2023 will be the disruption to Russia's oil and refined product exports." ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday, and at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) on Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration.
Oil edges up on supply concerns, China demand hopes
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Companies Chevron Corp FollowSINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up after industry executives flagged concerns about limited spare capacity in the market and uncertainty over Russian supplies while demand from top crude importer China is recovering. Brent crude futures had risen 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $86.58 a barrel by 0154 GMT after settling 0.4% higher on Monday. "The supply concerns that helped oil prices higher overnight likely stemmed from Chevron's CEO comment that there's 'not a lot of swing capacity' in oil markets," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. "The key unknown for 2023 will be the disruption to Russia's oil and refined product exports." ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday, and at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) on Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration.
Oil steady as market juggles supply and demand fears
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Brent crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.26%, to $85.96 a barrel by 1043 GMT. Bearish sentiment surrounded a contraction in China's exports and imports in January and February, including crude imports. The decline came despite a lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, pointing to weakness in foreign demand. "The key unknown for 2023 will be the disruption to Russia's oil and refined product exports," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. The market will also look for direction from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee at 1500 GMT on Tuesday.
David Solomon has been Goldman Sachs' CEO for more than four years since succeeding Lloyd Blankfein. There's been a lot of talk about the morale at Goldman Sachs. In reality, Solomon said, there were fewer "partner transitions at Goldman Sachs" in 2022 than any year "going back to 2014." "At the moment, year-to-date, our turnover is at a 5-year low, not just for partners, in the whole firm," Solomon added. Here is a running list of Goldman's partners that have retired from the firm — or moved on to roles at other companies — since Solomon became CEO.
The benchmark 62%-grade iron ore last traded at $126.80 per ton. Vincent Mundy | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFalling prices for global crude steel output could also contribute to lower iron ore prices. "Global crude steel output fell modestly in year-on-year terms last month ... The result was driven by a fall in steel output amongst most of the world's largest steel producers." World crude steel output recorded a 3.3% drop in January compared to the same period last year, according to the World Steel Association.
But as Instagram axes shopping products, ex-staffer Meghana Dhar points to Meta's "impatience." The moves have left many asking: What's going on with Instagram shopping? While at Instagram, Dhar worked on Instagram's early shopping features, from onboarding brands to getting John Mayer to host a live shopping event with laundry company The Laundress. But it's also had a tendency to launch and then axe shopping products, like Instagram (and Facebook) live shopping and affiliate marketing. Scaling back on shopping, for now, could also be a blessing in disguise for Meta, Dhar added.
President Joe Biden approved a limited TikTok ban Thursday when he signed the 4,126-page spending bill into law. The ban prohibits the use of TikTok by the federal government’s nearly 4 million employees on devices owned by its agencies, with limited exceptions for law enforcement, national security and security research purposes. Since 2020, a bubbling movement led largely by conservatives has maintained a minor interest in a TikTok ban. “We’re disappointed that Congress has moved to ban TikTok on government devices — a political gesture that will do nothing to advance national security interests — rather than encouraging the Administration to conclude its national security review,” the company said in a statement. It added that the proposed security agreement with the Biden administration would address the security concerns of lawmakers and regulators.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCap on Russian oil prices is probably too high to be effective, economist saysVivek Dhar of CBA says it remains to be seen whether disagreement from Poland and the Baltic states will lower the oil price cap.
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